Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD) is pursuing desalination as a supplemental supply for their customers. As in Cambria, there is vigorous debate over whether that is an appropriate solution for Marin.  In August,  James Fryer, Environmental Scientist and author of Sustaining Our Water Future wrote a paper entitled Water Supply Reliability and Catastrophic Planning Considerations that Cambrians may find interesting and familiar.

Fryer writes

There is a clear lack of consensus on the need to move forward with further effort and investment in developing a desalination facility. Continued investment in desalination with the present lack of consensus  will result in further conflict with a large portion of ratepayers which will create a diversion from focusing resources on viable water supply reliability and infrastructure improvements that have widespread consensus.

Fryer suggests the MMWD Board and a specially formed Citizen’s Advisory Council  work on resolving some specific policy issues:

What is the future water supply deficit and what future growth projections are reasonable for MMWD and NMWD?

Should carbon footprint reduction be used to offset large new energy uses or the existing footprint?

Is the $1,631/af marginal cost use in the MMWD conservation master plan a valid comparison point for conservation planning compared to the $2,900 to $4,400 marginal cost of desalination?

What is the definition of conservation first? Does this really mean simultaneous with desalination?

What is basis of a potential decision to move forward with desalination despite compelling evidence it is not needed?

These issues have significant bearing on water supply reliability planning and each should be specifically addressed before moving forward with a decision on desalination….

But an important question remains, what if Marin experiences a 3+ year severe drought event that far exceeds any drought event on record or detected in the 400 year tree ring analysis of local weather conditions? Is this a potential catastrophic event the MMWD Board should be considering and is it justified to approve a major capital investment of hundreds of millions of dollars for a desalination facility only needed for this type of unprecedented event?

The rest of the paper looks at planning for several different catastrophic events, including  comparison of a full range of relevant possibilities. This would enable the MMWD Board to allocate limited financial resources to preparing for the most likely events, instead of laying out huge sums chasing solutions for events extremely unlikely or completely unprecedented.

In Fryer’s words:

“First, it is important to briefly define and examine each type of catastrophic event. Then the individual events should be ranked for each category of risk and impact. Finally, the four types of catastrophic events should be ranked against each other.”

Read the full paper by downloading it here.

Let’s remember we are not alone in the world. We can learn from other communities – and should.

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